Pricing hail suppression and extra rain: North Dakota’s 2019 cloud seeding sums
In 2019 two North Dakota State University economists estimated what cloud seeding is worth to the state’s crop farmers. It is the fourth in a series of North Dakota cloud seeding valuations, and a 2021 study of crop yields cites it.
What the study did and found
The report is “Economic Impacts of Cloud Seeding on Agricultural Crops in North Dakota”, Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report No. 791, issued by North Dakota State University in June 2019. Dean Bangsund and Nancy Hodur updated a 2009 analysis of the same name, the fourth study in a series. The North Dakota Atmospheric Resource Board, which runs the state’s seeding programme, paid for the work.
The authors valued two assumed effects, fewer hail losses and more growing-season rain, for nine crops over 2008–2017. For the seeded western counties they estimated $6.9 million a year in avoided hail losses and $28.2 million to $48.8 million in total direct benefits, against costs of $909,000 a year. A hypothetical statewide programme came out at $299 million to $477 million a year.
Why it is cited
The report serves as the programme’s own economic reference, updating valuations published in 1989, 1998 and 2009. A 2021 study of crop yields in seeded counties, published in Weather, Climate, and Society, cites it.
The dollar figures are modelled, not measured. The 45% cut in hail losses comes from a 1997 exploratory analysis of insurance data, the 5% rain increase from unpublished estimates and the 10% scenario from no stated evidence. Several appendix totals also differ from the report’s main tables.
Later studies give a mixed picture. A 2021 panel study found wheat yields about 13% higher in participating counties, while a rain-gauge evaluation summarised by the US Government Accountability Office found an average rise of 3%, mostly not statistically conclusive. The World Meteorological Organization says the science of seeding hailstorms is not yet convincing.
The topic today
North Dakota’s programme has shrunk. Voters in Williams and Mountrail counties ended their weather modification authorities in November 2024, and the state’s project page now lists only Bowman and part of Slope County. Bills to restrict or repeal seeding failed in the state Senate in 2023 and 2025, while Tennessee banned the practice in 2024.
For the current picture, see our explainer Does Cloud Seeding Pay Off for Farmers? North Dakota’s 2019 Sums.